In the reverse fixture earlier this season, the Gunners were taken all the way by a scrappy but productive Cardiff but eventually took a 3-2 win back to North London. A lucky escape where really the home side deserved more but a late Lacazette winner clinched all three points for Unai Emery's side. Fast forward five months and the stakes remain the same; both teams need a win, and nothing else. With the past week's tragic events, Cardiff's attention may have been elsewhere but make no mistake they are desperate for points and now have added motivation to fight for the cause.
Another two defensive injuries frustrated Friday night's FA Cup tie, as both starting centre backs were withdrawn. Sokratis suffered a left ankle injury which has subsequently ruled him out for a month, whilst Laurent Koscielny came off in the second half due to a facial injury. This is being monitored day by day but rumours have circulated that it could be a broken or fractured jaw. His status is therefore less clear as he has not yet been ruled out for any length of time. Shkodran Mustafi will almost certainly come in to start this one and depending on Koscielny's fitness, the obvious option is the young Greekman Mavropanos. He deserves a shot and were he to impress, one could say that there's certainly a starting spot up for grabs with the defence being so shoddy this season. Cardiff at home could be the best time to reintegrate Mavropanos back into first team football, having missed the season so far with a groin problem. Bernd Leno will return to play in goal after being rested for the cup game against United. Maitland-Niles is expected to continue at right back whilst left back is a straigh fight between Kolasinac and the fit again Monreal.
In midfield there is a number of options but in light of the good win against Chelsea followed by the pretty woeful display against United a few days ago, proof is in the pudding; do not change a winning team, where possible. Emery needs to revert back to the 4-3-1-2 shape that bossed Chelsea off the park as its a great combination of energy, grit and creativity in midfield added to dynamism, fluidity and pace in attack - Chelsea couldn't handle it and Cardiff won't either. The subtle change in shape and one personnel alteration (Iwobi for Guendouzi) last time out meant so much for so many players resulting in a thoroughly disappointing loss. Getting back to a high intensity 4-3-2-1 formation with Guendouzi's legs back in the line up is the best we can do right now. It allows for a true two up top, the best we can do in light of our defensive frailties; score more than the opposition. Clean sheets are few and far between so one-nils are highly unlikely. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Alex Lacazette are both likely to start once again as is Aaron Ramsey. Mesut Ozil is likely to see pitch time but it is surely only from the bench having made no real impact against Man United. Ramsey has been one of the best players throughout the last two or three games and deserved to keep his place, especially against his boyhood club.
Cardiff have had a terrible week with the shocking news regarding their new striker Emiliano Sala. Neil Warnock has been speaking this week and has said that throughout his forty years plus of professional management, it's been his toughest week. To rile his players won't be easy and to motivate the ranks could also be a struggle. As a club they will honour their player, as will Arsenal but on the pitch its likely to be a big ask for Warnock's men. The Bluebirds are without influential skipper and powerful centre back Sean Morrison as he recovers from appendicitis, whilst out of favour forward Omar Bogle has joined League One side Portsmouth on a six month loan. Dangerman Victor Camarasa scored in the reverse last September and if fit, will be the one to watch once again.
Expected lineup:
GK: Bernd Leno
RB: Ainsley Maitland-Niles
CB: Dino Mavropanos
CB: Shkodran Mustafi
LB: Nacho Monreal
CM: Granit Xhaka
CM: Lucas Torreira
CM: Matteo Guendouzi
CAM: Aaron Ramsey
ST: Alex Lacazette
ST: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
Prediction: 2-0 win for the Gunners. In our back yard, with the players we've got, this will be too much of an ask for the visitors. Aubameyang to score and continue his charge for the league's Golden Boot.
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