Thanks to UEFA’s ‘same City rule’, for the second successive round Arsenal’s Europa League tie has been switched from its original standing. Arsenal were initially due to play Napoli away from home first but this was swiftly changed thanks to a rule that nobody seems to know how long it had been in existence or if its always been there.
The difference between this fixture change to that of the round of sixteen tie against Rennes is that Arsenal will now play at home first but does this change come with an advantage?
Thanks to the ‘away goals’ rule which has always been in existence, there can be equal cases made for playing either home or away first so perhaps a little history and some simple math’s can help provide the answer.
The History Lesson
Arsenal’s first European success came in 1970 when they defeated Anderlect in the Fairs Cup (this would later be re-named the UEFA Cup).
In those days the Final was played over two legs home & away. Arsenal played the first leg away losing 3-1 in Belgium but it was that away goal that would prove crucial to the final outcome. Arsenal won the home leg 3-0 in what was a historic and memorable night at Highbury.
1980 and a Cup Winners Cup semi-final against Italian giants Juventus. This time the first game was played at Highbury and ended in a 1-1 draw meaning the Gunners had to score in the return leg in Turin. In the 88th minute Paul Vassen headed in the winner and Arsenal advanced against the odds.
Not all these matches have a happy ending was the case in 1991 when Arsenal drew Sven Goran-Eriksson’s Benfica in the European Cup. Having drawn the first leg 1-1 in the Stadium of Light Arsenal appeared to be in the driving seat with the second leg at Highbury. Despite Arsenal taking the lead through Colin Pates (yes, really) Benfica went on to win the game 3-1. Benfica’s second which came in Extra-time simply gave Arsenal too much to do.
On route to the Gunners 1994 Cup Winners Cup success the Reds would defeat a very talented Paris St German team in the semi-final with the first leg played in the Parc de Princes where the game ended 1-1. With David Ginola cancelling out Ian Wright’s opener. Arsenal won a tight, tense second leg at Highbury 1-0 with a Kevin Campbell goal.
The following season with Arsenal trying to defend their trophy they faced another French team, Auxerre in the quarter-finals. After a disappointing 1-1 home draw in which the away side played very well Arsenal needed to score away from home. A stunning late strike from Ian Wright was enough to see us through.
After progressing against Auxerre, the semi-final against Sampdoria brought high drama. After what felt like a disappointing 3-2 first leg home win the Gunners found themselves 3-1 down late on in Genoa. A late long range strike from a Stefan Schwartz made the tie 5-5 overall. Arsenal eventually won on penalties thanks to some heroics in the Arsenal goal from David Seaman.
On route to Arsenal’s only ever Champions league final appearance Arsenal drew Real Madrid in the round of sixteen. After becoming the first English side to win at the Bernabeu thanks to a wonderful solo effort from Thierry Henry the tie switched back to London with the Spanish giants knowing that they needed to score in order to progress. Thanks mainly due to Jens Lehman with a little assist from the post the match ended 0-0 and Arsenal were through.
Arsenal have had some good results at the San Siro but unfortunately the first leg round of sixteen tie in 2012 against AC Milan wasn’t one of them. A poor showing resulted in a 4-0 defeat leaving the Londoners a mountain to climb in the return leg. Back at the Emirates the impossible looked possible as Arsenal raced to a 3-0 half time lead. The Gunners had several chances to get that all important fourth and although Milan were visibly nervous the game ended in glorious defeat.
You don’t need to dig to far into your memory bank for the last addition to this list. 2018 Europa League semi-final against Athletico Madrid. After having several good chances but being kept out by an outstanding performance from Jan Oblak in the Madrid goal, Arsenal eventually took the lead through Lacazette but a mistake a back gifted the visitors a crucial away goal. The away leg was always going to be difficult after that and the Gunners lost 1-0 in the Wanda Metropolitan.
The Maths
From the year 2000 onwards Arsenal have played in 37 two legged elimination games in European competition . They have won 24 of those ties an overall success rate of 64%.
17 of those 37 ties had the home leg first. Arsenal progressed on 11 occasions again giving a 64% success rate.
The remaining 20 ties started away from home with the Gunners progressing 13 times, an overall success rate of 65%.
So the numbers don’t define an advantage in either case.
In both 1991 against Benfica and 2004 against Chelsea, Arsenal came away with 1-1 draws in the first leg but in both cases conceded late (away) goals at home which ultimately eliminated them.
In 2012 a terrible performance away from home in Milan in the first leg eliminated them almost before they even had the second leg at home.
In all honesty there would appear to be no advantage to playing at home first. When Arsenal knocked out Real Madrid they played away first and I really think that had they played Athletico away first in the Europa league semi-final last year they would have had a better chance of going through but of course we’ll never know.
What is clear of course is that if Arsenal are to progress against Napoli then they need to improve their away performance, especially since they lost both away games in the previous rounds against lesser opposition. The Napoli fixture certainly has a similar feel to that of Athletico last year with of course the same format, home leg first.
Let’s hope for a different outcome rather than again second guessing if it would have been better to play the home leg second because history and Math’s don’t appear to provide an answer.
@davefalconUK
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